The way to develop in this space seems to be to give away free stuff, get your name out there, then make everything proprietary. I hope they still continue releasing open weights. The day no one releases open weights is a sad day for humanity. Normal people won’t own their own compute if that ever happens.
This is obviously a strategic move at a national level. Keep publishing competing free models to erode the moat western companies could have with their proprietary models. As long as the narrative serves China there will be no turn to proprietary models.
I think they're in a win-win situation. Big AI companies would love to see local computing die in favour of the cloud because they are well aware the moment an open model that can run on non ludicrous consumer hardware appears, they're screwed. In this situation Nvidia, AMD and the like would be the only ones profiting from it - even though I'm not convinced they'd prefer going back to fighting for B2C while B2B Is so much simpler for them
If you want to run AI models at scale and with reasonably quick response, there's not many alternatives to datacenter hardware. Consumer hardware is great for repurposing existing "free" compute (including gaming PCs, pro workstations etc. at the higher end) and for basic insurance against rug pulls from the big AI vendors, but increased scale will probably still bring very real benefits.
Currently, yes. But I don't find it hard to imagine that in a while we could get reasonably light open models with a level of reasoning similar to current opus, for instance. In such a scenario how many people would opt to pay for a way more expensive cloud subscription? Especially since lots of people are already not that interested in paying for frontier models nowadays where it makes sense. Unless keep on getting a constant, never ending stream of improvements we're basically bound to get to a point where unless you really need it you are ok with the basic, cheaper local alternative you don't have to pay for monthly.
I think average users are already okay with the reasoning level they'd get with current open models. But the big AI firms have pivoted their frontier models towards the enterprise: coding and research, as opposed to general chat. And scale is quite important for these uses, ordinary pro hardware is not enough.
At a consistent amount of usage, datacenters are at least an order of magnitude more hardware efficient. I'm sure Nvidia and AMD would be fine fighting for B2C if it meant volume would be 10+x.
Now, given they can't satisfy current volume, they are forced to settle for just having crazy margins.
Always has been, it’s literally saas; the slight difference is that the lowest tier subscriptions at the frontier labs are basically free trials nowadays, too
I'm a little more optimistic than that. I suspect that the open-weight models we already have are going to be enough to support incremental development of new ones, using reasonably-accessible levels of compute.
The idea that every new foundation model needs to be pretrained from scratch, using warehouses of GPUs to crunch the same 50 terabytes of data from the same original dumps of Common Crawl and various Russian pirate sites, is hard to justify on an intuitive basis. I think the hard work has already been done. We just don't know how to leverage it properly yet.
I do not think it's common crawl anymore, its common crawl++ using paid human experts to generate and verify new content, weather its code or research.
I believe US is building this off the cost difference from other countries using companies like scale, outlier etc, while china has the internal population to do this
The Chinese state wants the world using their models.
People think that Chinese AI labs are just super cool bros that love sharing for free.
The don't understand it's just a state sponsored venture meant to further entrench China in global supply and logistics. China's VCs are Chinese banks and a sprinkle of "private" money. Private in quotes because technically it still belongs to the state anyway.
China doesn't have companies and government like the US. It just has government, and a thin veil of "company" that readily fool westerners.
I'm not sure how local AI models are meant to "entrench China in global supply and logistics". The two areas have nothing to do with one another. You can easily run a Chinese open model on all-American hardware.
They are building a pipeline, and the goal is to get people in the door.
If you forever stand at the entrance eating the free samples, that's fine, they don't care. Other people are going through the door and you are still consuming what they feed you. Doesn't mean it's going to be bad or evil, but they are staking their territory of control.
Like with nuclear technology, it's not healthy for only one country to dominate AI. The cat is already out of the bag and many countries now have the ability to train and run models. Silicon Valley has bootstrapped this space. But it should be noted that they are using AI talent from all over the world and it was sort of inevitable that this technology would get around. Lots of Chinese, Indian, Russian, and Europeans are involved.
As for what comes next, it's probably going to be a bit of a race for who can do the most useful and valuable things the cheapest. If OpenAI and Anthropic don't make it, the technology will survive them. If they do, they'll be competing on quality and cost.
As for state sponsorship, a lot of things are state sponsored. Including in the US. Silicon Valley has a rich history that is rooted in massive government funding programs. There's a great documentary out there the secret history of Silicon Valley on this. Not to mention all the "cheap" gas that is currently powering data centers of course comes on the back of a long history of public funding being channeled into the oil and gas industry.
>As for state sponsorship, a lot of things are state sponsored.
You can make any comparison you want if you use adjectives rather than values. I can say that cars use a massive amount of water (all those radiators!) to try and downplay agricultural water usage. But its blatantly disingenuous.
So an OPEN model that I can run on my own fucking hardware will entrench China in global supply and logistics how?
Contrary: How will the closed, proprietary models from Anthropic, "Open"AI and Co. lead us all to freedom? Freedom of what exactly? Freedom of my money?
At some point this "anti-communism" bullshit propaganda has to stop. And that moment was decades ago!
Ok I find it funny that people compare models and are like, opus 4.7 is SOTA and is much better etc, but I have used glm 5.1 (I assume this comes form them training on both opus and codex) for things opus couldn't do and have seen it make better code, haven't tried the qwen max series but I have seen the local 122b model do smarter more correct things based on docs than opus so yes benchmarks are one thing but reality is what the modes actually do and you should learn and have the knowledge of the real strengths that models posses. It is a tool in the end you shouldn't be saying a hammer is better then a wrench even tho both would be able to drive a nail in a piece of wood.
With them comparing to Opus 4.5, I find it hard to take some of these in good faith. Opus 4.7 is new, so I don't expect that, but Opus 4.6 has been out for quite some time.
The thing is, Opus 4.5 is where the model reached Good Enough, at least for a wide variety of problems I use LLMs for. Before that, I almost never thought it was a more productive use of my time to use AI for development tasks, because it would always hallucinate something that would waste a bunch of my time. It just wasn't a good trade.
But, if for some reason everything stopped at Opus 4.5 level and we never got a better model (and 4.6/4.7 are better, if only marginally so and mostly expanding the kind of work it can do rather than making it better at making web apps), we could still do a lot of real work real fast with Opus 4.5, and software development would never go back to everyone handwriting most of the code.
A model as good as Opus 4.5 (or slightly better according to the mostly easily gamed benchmarks) at a 10th the price is probably a worthwhile proposition for a lot of people. $100 a month, or more, to get Opus 4.7 is well worth it for a western developer...the time the lower-end models waste is far more expensive than the cost of using the most expensive models. For the foreseeable future, I'll keep paying a premium for the models that waste less of my time and produce better results with less prodding.
But, also, it's wild how fast things move. Open models you can run on relatively modest hardware are competitive with frontier models of two years ago. I mean, you can run Qwen 3.6 MoE 35B A3B or the larger Gemma 4 models on normal hardware, like a beefy Macbook or a Strix Halo or any recentish 24GB/32GB GPU...not much more expensive than the average developer laptop of pre-AI times. And, it can write code. It can write decent prose (Qwen is maybe better at code, Gemma definitely has better prose), they can use tools, they have a big enough context window for real work. They aren't as good as Opus 4.5, yet.
Anyway, I use several models at this point, for security and code reviews, even if Claude Code with Opus is still obviously the best option for most software development tasks. I'll give Qwen a try, too. I like their small models, which punch well above their weight, I'll probably like the big one, too.
If money is no object, then nothing else is worth considering if it isn't Codex 5.4/Opus 4.7/SOTA. But for many to most people, value Vs. relative quality are huge levers.
Even many people on a Claude subscription aren't choosing or able to choose Opus 4.7 because of those cost/usage pressures. Often using Sonnet or an older opus, because of the value Vs. quality curve.
anecdotally the quality of output isn't significantly different, the speed seems to be what you're really paying for, and since the alternative is free I'll stick to local.
Cost may or may not be a factor in my choice of model, but knowing the capabilities and knowing they will remain consistent, reliable, and available over time is always a dominant consideration. Lately, Anthropic in particular has not been great at that.
Unfortunately, like with the release of Qwen3.6-Plus, this model also isn’t released for local use. From the linked article: “Qwen3.6-Max-Preview is the hosted proprietary model available via Alibaba Cloud Model Studio”
When Sonnet 4.6 was released, I switchmed my default from Opus to Sonnet because it was about en par with Opus 4.5. While 4.6 and 4.7 are "better", the leap is too small for most tasks for me to need it, and so reducing cost is now a valid reason to stay at that level.
If even cheaper models start reaching that level (GLM 5.1 is also close enough that I'm using it at lot), that's a big deal, and a totally valid reason to compare against Opus 4.5
Their Plus series have existed since Qwen chat was available , as far as I remember. I can at least remember trying out their Plus model early last year.
Nowadays, I'm working on a realtime path tracer where you need proper understanding of microfacet reflection models, PDFs, (multiple) importance sampling, ReSTIR, etc.. Saying that mine is a somewhat unique specific use case.
And I've using Claude, Gemini, GLM, Qwen to double check my math, my code and to get practical information to make my path tracer more efficient. Claude and Gemini failed me more than a couple of times with wrong, misleading and unnecessary information but on the other hand Qwen always gave me proper, practical and correct information. I almost stopped using Claude and Gemini to not to waste my time anymore.
Claude code may shine developing web applications, backends and simple games. But it's definitely not for me. And this is the story of my specific use case.
I have said similar things about someone experiencing similar things while writing some OpenGL code (some raytracing etc) that these models have very little understanding and aren't good at anything beyond basic CRUD web apps.
In my own experience, even with web app of medium scale (think Odoo kind of ERP), they are next to useless in understanding and modling domain correctly with very detailed written specs fed in (whole directory with index.md and sub sections and more detailed sections/chapters in separate markdown files with pointers in index.md) and I am not talking open weight models here - I am talking SOTA Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro etc.
But that narrative isn't popular. I see the parallels here with the Crypto and NFT era. That was surely the future and at least my firm pays me in cypto whereas NFTs are used for rewarding bonusess.
a semester ago i was taking a machine learning exam in uni and the exam tasked us with creating a neural network using only numerical libraries (no pytorch ecc). I'm sure that there are a huge lot of examples looking all the same, but given that we were just students without a lot of prior experience we probably deviated from what it had in its training data, with more naive or weird solutions. Asking gemini 3 to refactor things or in very narrow things to help was ok, but it was quite bad at getting the general context, and spotting bugs, so much that a few times it was easier to grab the book and get the original formula right
otoh, we spotted a wrong formula regarding learning rate on wikipedia and it is now correct :) without gemini and just our intuition of "mhh this formula doesn't seem right", that definitely inflated our ego
What size of Qwen is that, though? The largest sizes are admittedly difficult to run locally (though this is an issue of current capability wrt. inference engines, not just raw hardware).
How "social" does Quen feel? The way I am using LLMs for coding makes this actually the most important aspect by now. Claude 4.6 felt like a nice knowledgeable coworker who shared his thinking while solving problems. Claude 4.7 is the difficult anti-social guy who jumps ahead instead of actually answering your questions and does not like to talk to people in general. How are Qwen's social skills?
This is not my experience at all, Qwen3.6-Plus spits out multiple paragraphs of text for the prompts I give. It wasn't like this before. Now I have to explicitly tell it not to yap so much and keep it short, concise and direct.
Everybody's out here chasing SOTA, meanwhile I'm getting all my coding done with MiniMax M2.5 in multiple parallel sessions for $10/month and never running into limits.
For serious work, the difference between spending $10/month and $100/month is not even worth considering for most professional developers. There are exceptions like students and people in very low income countries, but I’m always confused by developers with in careers where six figure salaries are normal who are going cheap on tools.
I find even the SOTA models to be far away from trustworthy for anything beyond throwaway tasks. Supervising a less-than-SOTA model to save $10 to $100 per month is not attractive to me in the least.
I have been experimenting with self hosted models for smaller throwaway tasks a lot. It’s fun, but I’m not going to waste my time with it for the real work.
For actually serious work, it's a stark difference if your proprietary and security relevant code is sent abroad to a foreign, possibly future hostile country, or is sent to some data center around the corner. It doesn't even need to be defence related.
You need to supervise the model anyway, because you want that code to be long-term maintainable and defect free, and AI is nowhere near strong enough to guarantee that anytime soon. Using the latest Opus for literally everything is just a huge waste of effort.
I find it odd that none of OpenAI models was used in comparison, but used Z GLM 5.1. Is Z (GLM 5.1) really that good? It is crushing Opus 4.5 in these benchmarks, if that is true, I would have expected to read many articles on HN on how people flocked CC and Codex to use it.
In fact it is appreciated that Qwen is comparing to a peer. I myself and several eng I know are trying GLM. It's legit. Definitely not the same as Codex or Opus, but cheaper and "good enough". I basically ask GLM to solve a program, walk away 10-15 minutes, and the problem is solved.
cheaper is quite subjective, I just went to their pricing page [0] and cost saving compared to performance does not sell it well (again, personal opinion).
CC has a limited capacity for Opus, but fairly good for Sonnet. For Codex, never had issues about hitting my limits and I'm only a pro user.
GLM 5.1 is pretty good, probably the best non-US agentic coding model currently available. But both GLM 5.0 and 5.1 have had issues with availability and performance that makes them frustrating to use. Recently GLM 5.1 was also outputting garbage thinking traces for me, but that appears to be fixed now.
GLM-5 is good, like really good. Especially if you take pricing into consideration. I paid 7$ for 3 months. And I get more usage than CC.
They have difficulty supplying their users with capacity, but in an email they pointed out that they are aware of it. During peak hours, I experience degraded performance. But I am on their lowest tier subscription, so I understand if my demand is not prioritized during those hours.
Yes. GLM 5.1 is that good. I don't think it is as good as Claude was in January or February of this year, but it is similar to how Claude runs now, perhaps better because I feel like it's performance is more consistent.
I'm using GLM 5.1 for the last two weeks as a cheaper alternative to Sonnet, and it's great - probably somewhere between Sonnet and Opus. It's pretty slow though.
GLM 5.1 is the first model I've found good enough to spring for a subscription for other than Claude and Codex.
It's not crushing Opus 4.5 in real-life use for me, but it's close enough to be near interchangeable with Sonnet for me for a lot of tasks, though some of the "savings" are eaten up by seemingly using more tokens for similar complexity tasks (I don't have enough data yet, but I've pushed ~500m tokens through it so far.
I've been using it through OpenCode Go and it does seem decent in my limited experience. I haven't done anything which I could directly compare to Opus yet though.
I did give it one task which was more complex and I was quite impressed by. I had a local setup with Tiltdev, K3S and a pnpm monorepo which was failing to run the web application dev server; GLM correctly figured out that it was a container image build cache issue after inspecting the containers etc and corrected the Tiltfile and build setup.
Most HN commenters seem to be a step behind the latest developments, and sometimes miss them entirely (Kimi K2.5 is one example). Not surprising as most people don't want to put in the effort to sift through the bullshit on Twitter to figure out the latest opinions. Many people here will still prefer the output of Opus 4.5/4.6/4.7, nowadays this mostly comes down to the aesthetic choices Anthropic has made.
Not just aesthetics though, from time to time I implement the same feature with CC and Codex just to compare results, and I yet to find Codex making better decisions or even the completeness of the feature.
For more complicated stuff, like queries or data comparison, Codex seems always behind for me.
its an SKU from OpenAI's perspective, broader goal and vision is (was) different. Look at the Claude and GLM, both were 95% committed to dev tooling: best coding models, coding harness, even their cowork is built on top of claude code
I'm not sure how this makes sense when Claude models aren't even coding specific: Haiku, Sonnet, Opus are the exact same models you'd use for chat or (with the recent Mythos) bleeding edge research.
Now, given they can't satisfy current volume, they are forced to settle for just having crazy margins.
The idea that every new foundation model needs to be pretrained from scratch, using warehouses of GPUs to crunch the same 50 terabytes of data from the same original dumps of Common Crawl and various Russian pirate sites, is hard to justify on an intuitive basis. I think the hard work has already been done. We just don't know how to leverage it properly yet.
I believe US is building this off the cost difference from other countries using companies like scale, outlier etc, while china has the internal population to do this
People think that Chinese AI labs are just super cool bros that love sharing for free.
The don't understand it's just a state sponsored venture meant to further entrench China in global supply and logistics. China's VCs are Chinese banks and a sprinkle of "private" money. Private in quotes because technically it still belongs to the state anyway.
China doesn't have companies and government like the US. It just has government, and a thin veil of "company" that readily fool westerners.
If you forever stand at the entrance eating the free samples, that's fine, they don't care. Other people are going through the door and you are still consuming what they feed you. Doesn't mean it's going to be bad or evil, but they are staking their territory of control.
As for what comes next, it's probably going to be a bit of a race for who can do the most useful and valuable things the cheapest. If OpenAI and Anthropic don't make it, the technology will survive them. If they do, they'll be competing on quality and cost.
As for state sponsorship, a lot of things are state sponsored. Including in the US. Silicon Valley has a rich history that is rooted in massive government funding programs. There's a great documentary out there the secret history of Silicon Valley on this. Not to mention all the "cheap" gas that is currently powering data centers of course comes on the back of a long history of public funding being channeled into the oil and gas industry.
You can make any comparison you want if you use adjectives rather than values. I can say that cars use a massive amount of water (all those radiators!) to try and downplay agricultural water usage. But its blatantly disingenuous.
Contrary: How will the closed, proprietary models from Anthropic, "Open"AI and Co. lead us all to freedom? Freedom of what exactly? Freedom of my money?
At some point this "anti-communism" bullshit propaganda has to stop. And that moment was decades ago!
I still prefer that over US total dominance.
Let them fight it out.
Then decide ...
As so many things these days: It's a cult.
I've used Claude for many months now. Since February I see a stark decline in the work I do with it.
I've also tried to use it for GPU programming where it absolutely sucks at, with Sonnet, Opus 4.5 and 4.6
But if you share that sentiment, it's always a "You're just holding it wrong" or "The next model will surely solve this"
For me it's just a tool, so I shrug.
1. Keeping models closed source.
2. Jacking up pricing. A lot. Sometimes up to 100% increase.
But, if for some reason everything stopped at Opus 4.5 level and we never got a better model (and 4.6/4.7 are better, if only marginally so and mostly expanding the kind of work it can do rather than making it better at making web apps), we could still do a lot of real work real fast with Opus 4.5, and software development would never go back to everyone handwriting most of the code.
A model as good as Opus 4.5 (or slightly better according to the mostly easily gamed benchmarks) at a 10th the price is probably a worthwhile proposition for a lot of people. $100 a month, or more, to get Opus 4.7 is well worth it for a western developer...the time the lower-end models waste is far more expensive than the cost of using the most expensive models. For the foreseeable future, I'll keep paying a premium for the models that waste less of my time and produce better results with less prodding.
But, also, it's wild how fast things move. Open models you can run on relatively modest hardware are competitive with frontier models of two years ago. I mean, you can run Qwen 3.6 MoE 35B A3B or the larger Gemma 4 models on normal hardware, like a beefy Macbook or a Strix Halo or any recentish 24GB/32GB GPU...not much more expensive than the average developer laptop of pre-AI times. And, it can write code. It can write decent prose (Qwen is maybe better at code, Gemma definitely has better prose), they can use tools, they have a big enough context window for real work. They aren't as good as Opus 4.5, yet.
Anyway, I use several models at this point, for security and code reviews, even if Claude Code with Opus is still obviously the best option for most software development tasks. I'll give Qwen a try, too. I like their small models, which punch well above their weight, I'll probably like the big one, too.
Even many people on a Claude subscription aren't choosing or able to choose Opus 4.7 because of those cost/usage pressures. Often using Sonnet or an older opus, because of the value Vs. quality curve.
If even cheaper models start reaching that level (GLM 5.1 is also close enough that I'm using it at lot), that's a big deal, and a totally valid reason to compare against Opus 4.5
For me, Opus 4.5 and 4.6 feel so different compared to sonnet.
Maybe I'm lazy or something but sonnet is much worse in my experience at inferring intent correctly if I've left any ambiguity.
That effect is super compounding.
In any case a benchmark provided by the provider is always biased, they will pick the frameworks where their model fares well. Omit the others.
Independent benchmarks are the go to.
I knew of all the 3.5’s and the one 3.6, but only now heard about the Plus.
And I've using Claude, Gemini, GLM, Qwen to double check my math, my code and to get practical information to make my path tracer more efficient. Claude and Gemini failed me more than a couple of times with wrong, misleading and unnecessary information but on the other hand Qwen always gave me proper, practical and correct information. I almost stopped using Claude and Gemini to not to waste my time anymore.
Claude code may shine developing web applications, backends and simple games. But it's definitely not for me. And this is the story of my specific use case.
In my own experience, even with web app of medium scale (think Odoo kind of ERP), they are next to useless in understanding and modling domain correctly with very detailed written specs fed in (whole directory with index.md and sub sections and more detailed sections/chapters in separate markdown files with pointers in index.md) and I am not talking open weight models here - I am talking SOTA Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro etc.
But that narrative isn't popular. I see the parallels here with the Crypto and NFT era. That was surely the future and at least my firm pays me in cypto whereas NFTs are used for rewarding bonusess.
[0]. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47817982
otoh, we spotted a wrong formula regarding learning rate on wikipedia and it is now correct :) without gemini and just our intuition of "mhh this formula doesn't seem right", that definitely inflated our ego
This is not my experience at all, Qwen3.6-Plus spits out multiple paragraphs of text for the prompts I give. It wasn't like this before. Now I have to explicitly tell it not to yap so much and keep it short, concise and direct.
I find even the SOTA models to be far away from trustworthy for anything beyond throwaway tasks. Supervising a less-than-SOTA model to save $10 to $100 per month is not attractive to me in the least.
I have been experimenting with self hosted models for smaller throwaway tasks a lot. It’s fun, but I’m not going to waste my time with it for the real work.
CC has a limited capacity for Opus, but fairly good for Sonnet. For Codex, never had issues about hitting my limits and I'm only a pro user.
https://z.ai/subscribe
https://deepinfra.com/zai-org/GLM-5.1
Looks like fp4 quantization now though? Last week was showing fp8. Hm..
I also regularly experience Deepinfra slow to an absolute crawl - I've actually gotten more consistent performance from Z.ai.
I really liked Deepinfra but something doesn't seem right over there at the moment.
It's frankly a bummer that there's not seemingly a better serving option for GLM 5.1 than z.AI, who seems to have reliability and cost issues.
They have difficulty supplying their users with capacity, but in an email they pointed out that they are aware of it. During peak hours, I experience degraded performance. But I am on their lowest tier subscription, so I understand if my demand is not prioritized during those hours.
It's not crushing Opus 4.5 in real-life use for me, but it's close enough to be near interchangeable with Sonnet for me for a lot of tasks, though some of the "savings" are eaten up by seemingly using more tokens for similar complexity tasks (I don't have enough data yet, but I've pushed ~500m tokens through it so far.
I did give it one task which was more complex and I was quite impressed by. I had a local setup with Tiltdev, K3S and a pnpm monorepo which was failing to run the web application dev server; GLM correctly figured out that it was a container image build cache issue after inspecting the containers etc and corrected the Tiltfile and build setup.
For more complicated stuff, like queries or data comparison, Codex seems always behind for me.
OpenAI on the other hand has different models optimized for coding, GPT-x-codex, Anthropic doesnt have this distinction
They brag about Qwen but don't let people use it.